Coronavirus

Looking for opportunities?
User avatar
robcat2075
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:19 pm

The heavy hand of big government steps in... to make people do what they should have done all along.

It seems part of the problem was that they were making two vaccines at once. What could go wrong?

NYT:The Biden administration put Johnson & Johnson in charge of a Baltimore plant that ruined millions of doses of its vaccine.
The Biden administration on Saturday put Johnson & Johnson in charge of a Baltimore contract plant that ruined 15 million doses of its Covid-19 vaccine, and moved to stop the facility from making another vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca, senior federal health officials said.

The extraordinary move by the U.S. Health and Human Services will leave the Emergent BioSolutions facility solely devoted to making the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine and is meant to avoid future mix-ups, according to two senior federal health officials. Johnson & Johnson confirmed the changes, saying it was “assuming full responsibility” for the vaccine made by Emergent.

The change came in response to the recent disclosure that Emergent, a manufacturing partner to both AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, accidentally mixed up the ingredients from the two different vaccines, which forced regulators to delay authorization of the plant’s production lines.
>>Robert Holmén<<

Hear me as I play my horn

See my Spacepod movie
User avatar
JohnL
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:01 am
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus

Post by JohnL » Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:38 am

The extraordinary move by the U.S. Health and Human Services...
Extraordinary, but not entirely unprecedented. This sort of thing happened during WWII with defense contractors (Brewster Aeronautical Corporation being a prime example), though often it was the military that took over, rather than another company.
baileyman
Posts: 614
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by baileyman » Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:55 am

https://imgur.com/a/WvNIyVR
Image

Forewarned is forearmed. This is Massachusetts. We do not collect, or at least do not publicly disclose, data on variants, nor the expectations of epidemiologists (which we have in abundance), nor do we trace and isolate. Rather, we talk incessantly about "opening up", bars, restaurants, sports venues, etc. The mood is upbeat, hopeful that the end is in sight. Meanwhile, this is the picture of what is happening.

The blue is a freehand exponential decay line for the "old" variant, and the red is a freehand exponential growth line for the "new" variants. The two lines should sum to be similar to the observed curve. The bottoming you see is at a ten-times higher level than the previous bottom which led to the peak just passed. It sure seems state officials should be concerned. Their public speech should be something like, "The state is on fire! Everybody stay home!" but we get no urgency whatsoever.

It appears that this red surge is a northeastern thing and is ramping up most everywhere. Perhaps it will wash its way west and south. Watch out. If you feel like advocating for anything, advocate for "Covid Zero".
User avatar
BGuttman
Posts: 3312
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 am
Location: Cow Hampshire

Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:50 am

Interesting thing about your observation. While cases are going up, the death toll hasn't kept pace. It's possible that this variant is more contagious and less deadly. I see the same curves from New Hampshire and Massachusetts (I don't have an easy source for the rest of New England). CDC is showing large outbreaks even in Vermont, which has been very low in the past.

Vaccinations are continuing apace here, and I hope it will mitigate this new outbreak.
Bruce Guttman
Merrimack Valley Philharmonic Orchestra
"Almost Professional"
baileyman
Posts: 614
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by baileyman » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:40 am

Deaths could relate to the younger age of newly infecteds and the increasing skill the docs now bring to hospitalizations, and having some free capacity, now, too.
User avatar
ArbanRubank
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:50 am

Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArbanRubank » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:49 am

I think we are seeing mixed results. More and more people are getting vacc'd, so there are more of us protected from contagion and the harsher side of getting sick if we do get it. And yet more and more people are coming out of their lock-downs, potentially spreading the virus. The variants seem to be going after the younger population more, who have previously thought they had some type of youth immunity. In short, it ain't over yet by a long shot.
User avatar
spencercarran
Posts: 203
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:02 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Coronavirus

Post by spencercarran » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:13 am

BGuttman wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:50 am
Interesting thing about your observation. While cases are going up, the death toll hasn't kept pace.
This was the folk theory during the late fall/early winter surge last year. It was nonsense then and is nonsense again now. Deaths lag cases, for reasons that should be obvious.
Bach5G
Posts: 1367
Joined: Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:19 am

Lots of people travelling over the the Easter weekend. We’ve seen the scenario before. It will be interesting to see if it leads to a surge in infections.
User avatar
robcat2075
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:51 am

The death count isn't the only metric that matters.

The people who get sick enough to show up in the "cases" count are candidates for long-lasting, maybe permanent health problems, even after they "recover".
>>Robert Holmén<<

Hear me as I play my horn

See my Spacepod movie
User avatar
BGuttman
Posts: 3312
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 am
Location: Cow Hampshire

Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:48 pm

robcat2075 wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:51 am
The death count isn't the only metric that matters.

The people who get sick enough to show up in the "cases" count are candidates for long-lasting, maybe permanent health problems, even after they "recover".
Agreed. Surprisingly, the vaccines seem to help mitigate these long term effects.
Bruce Guttman
Merrimack Valley Philharmonic Orchestra
"Almost Professional"
Bach5G
Posts: 1367
Joined: Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:59 pm

There seems to be several treatments that mitigate the symptoms pretty effectively but no one is talking about those.
User avatar
BGuttman
Posts: 3312
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 am
Location: Cow Hampshire

Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:03 pm

Well, there's Remdesivir (an expensive cocktail that has to be dosed by IV) and then Ivermectin (which everybody seems to be ignoring). We can dispense with hydroxychlorquine (which doesn't work) and bleach injections (Yikes!).
Bruce Guttman
Merrimack Valley Philharmonic Orchestra
"Almost Professional"
User avatar
spencercarran
Posts: 203
Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:02 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Coronavirus

Post by spencercarran » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:06 pm

Vaccines should generally be preferred to therapeutics. Ounce of prevention, pound of cure, etc
User avatar
BGuttman
Posts: 3312
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 am
Location: Cow Hampshire

Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:17 pm

spencercarran wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:06 pm
Vaccines should generally be preferred to therapeutics. Ounce of prevention, pound of cure, etc
Absolutely, but it would help if we had something to give the poor soul who contracted the disease before he could be vaccinated.

I'm kinda worried about Ivermectin. There are some studies that show promise both as a treatment and a prophylaxis. Given the studies so far it would behoove the Health community to investigate further. Given that the stuff has been around for a long time (no issues with safety) and is available as a generic it could be a good choice; especially for the 3rd World where cost is a factor.
Bruce Guttman
Merrimack Valley Philharmonic Orchestra
"Almost Professional"
User avatar
robcat2075
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:50 pm

Bach5G wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:59 pm
There seems to be several treatments that mitigate the symptoms pretty effectively but no one is talking about those.
I'm sure treatments are widely talked-about among the professionals who have to treat COVID-sick people, but in a public health policy sense they probably don't want to talk something up that gives the false sense of "don't worry, if you get sick we have the cure on the shelf here."
>>Robert Holmén<<

Hear me as I play my horn

See my Spacepod movie
Bach5G
Posts: 1367
Joined: Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bach5G » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:06 pm

I think it was Fauci who was saying there were medications that weren’t being used and were at risk of expiring. But I might be wrong.

I did find this article on therapies:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ments.html
User avatar
robcat2075
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:44 am

J&J vaccine "paused"

NYT:
The U.S. calls for a pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine after rare clotting cases.

Federal health agencies on Tuesday called for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine after six recipients in the United States developed a rare disorder involving blood clots within about two weeks of vaccination.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Nearly seven million people in the United States have received Johnson & Johnson shots so far,
So that's a less than 1-in-a-million chance of the clotting side effect.

What is the occurrence of clotting in the general population? This page suggest that the natural occurrence of harmful blood clots is "1 to 2 per 1,000" each year with 100,000 deaths...
Venous Thromboembolism (Blood Clots)

So that prompts two questions
  • When blood clots are so common how will they ascertain whether these J&J-associated cases are really due to the vaccine? Maybe they would have happened anyway?
  • When blood clots are so common, why have there been no anecdotal reports of blood clots "after" the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. 200 million doses of those have been given so far.
>>Robert Holmén<<

Hear me as I play my horn

See my Spacepod movie
User avatar
BGuttman
Posts: 3312
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 am
Location: Cow Hampshire

Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:42 am

This is exactly the same as the AstraZenica situation. The prevalence of the clots is VERY low.

My wife noted that bad reactions to COVID vaccines were associated with high estrogen levels. Wonder if this is part of the issue? As an older male I don't have much testosterone, nor much estrogen. I had no reaction to the first dose and I'm not 24 hours into the second so I'm still waiting.
Bruce Guttman
Merrimack Valley Philharmonic Orchestra
"Almost Professional"
PaulT
Posts: 282
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:55 pm
Location: North Dakota

Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:55 pm

robcat2075 wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:44 am


So that prompts two questions
  • When blood clots are so common how will they ascertain whether these J&J-associated cases are really due to the vaccine? Maybe they would have happened anyway?
  • When blood clots are so common, why have there been no anecdotal reports of blood clots "after" the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. 200 million doses of those have been given so far.
Second question first. The J&J and AZ vaccines are both "adenoviral vector" vaccines. I'm not going to try explain that. Suffice to say, the J&J vaccine and the AZ vaccine share a similar mode of action; a similar means of introducing the necessary instructions to the target cell. The Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines, a very different (and much newer) vaccine type with a very different mode of action than the J&J and AZ vaccines.

The similarity of the J&J and AZ vaccines and the similarities of the clotting symptoms and the similar age and sex of the people experiencing these symptoms after receiving the JJ and AZ vaccines is causing significant concern. There are some worrisome connections.

As for the first question, that is a work in progress. That these clots have been occurring among J&J and AZ vaccinated women under the age of 50 in a greater frequency than would be expected statistically raised the red flag. Next comes the sleuthing, and there are plausible leads to pursue.

I believe there is one thing we can bank on, this issue is not one that anyone in the medical community has any desire to exaggerate. The opposite. Both vaccines are desperately needed, especially so as the vaccination effort moves beyond the more affluent countries. That medical authorities clearly aware of the need would lend credence to the clotting issues by calling for a pause and further study indicates (to me) that there is serious concern.
Last edited by PaulT on Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
BGuttman
Posts: 3312
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:19 am
Location: Cow Hampshire

Re: Coronavirus

Post by BGuttman » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:06 pm

Apparently all of the clotting cases have occurred in women under 50 years old (i.e. still menstrual). Seems that men are safe, as are older (post menopausal) women. Also, the chances of getting the clots are several orders of magnitude lower than the chances of getting COVID if un-vaccinated.

The J&J and AZ vaccines have the advantage of not needing as much refrigeration (a normal freezer will serve) and could be an advantage in 3rd World countries where facilities are limited.
Bruce Guttman
Merrimack Valley Philharmonic Orchestra
"Almost Professional"
PaulT
Posts: 282
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:55 pm
Location: North Dakota

Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:12 pm

And bear in mind, when "the odds" of this and that are being considered, make sure the table is level. The risk of clots has to be calculated within the target group, young women, not the general population. And the counter balancing risk of Covid has to be similarly calculated as it exists within the same target group, otherwise healthy young women, not the general population.

I'm not a young woman, but if I were, I personally would consider it prudent to bypass the J&J vaccine and go for the Pfizer or Moderna. (as, as a healthy young woman, I would consider the consequences of Covid to be near 0 when compared to the consequences of a blood clot in the brain). And if by chance I had just received the J&J vaccine, I would start taking a daily low dose aspirin for the next month or so... just because...

The bugger is, these two vaccines, the JJ and AZ are needed for the push to vaccinate the poorer countries of the world in a timely, or as close to timely as we are likely to achieve, manner. And now those waters are being muddied and suspicions, even if established to be unwarranted in the greater picture, will linger and continue to cloud.

It's a bad deal.
Last edited by PaulT on Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
robcat2075
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by robcat2075 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:27 am

PaulT wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:55 pm
robcat2075 wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:44 am


So that prompts two questions
  • When blood clots are so common how will they ascertain whether these J&J-associated cases are really due to the vaccine? Maybe they would have happened anyway?
  • When blood clots are so common, why have there been no anecdotal reports of blood clots "after" the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. 200 million doses of those have been given so far.
Second question first. The J&J and AZ vaccines are both "adenoviral vector" vaccines...
I guess you missed the irony quotes around "after".
>>Robert Holmén<<

Hear me as I play my horn

See my Spacepod movie
PaulT
Posts: 282
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:55 pm
Location: North Dakota

Re: Coronavirus

Post by PaulT » Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:03 am

Yep. I missed them.

You have any other questions you don't need answered? ;)
baileyman
Posts: 614
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by baileyman » Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:14 am

robcat2075 wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:44 am
J&J vaccine "paused"
...
So that's a less than 1-in-a-million chance of the clotting side effect.

What is the occurrence of clotting in the general population? This page suggest that the natural occurrence of harmful blood clots is "1 to 2 per 1,000" each year with 100,000 deaths...
Venous Thromboembolism (Blood Clots)
...

Nice work. On the practical side, suppose you're a doc, and the information is correct, you'll see on average a thousand blood clots for every one of the clots supposedly related to J&J.

You know, centuries ago midwifes knew how to cow-pox inoculate against small pox. One wonders what would have happened if someone had been there to bean count the complications that occurred at greater than 1 per million rate.

In a utilitarian sense, the weighted average probabilities in these situations are massively positive. So positive that one must question where such official disregard of the clear cost-benefit comes from. So far this looks like a hysteria, but we shall see.
Post Reply

Return to “Gigs, Events, Jobs, & Vacancies”